2024 year end prediction for the stock market!

Scenario 2: 15% or more is achieved but with stress…

Welcome to the trading community. You must agree to yourself that the stock market is not a place for gambling, kindly check your stress and when indices have beaten your returns why your active trading strategy has stopped your profits at 15% even when you were full time engaged in trading. Even if you’ve beaten the indices or an active fund manager, what was your screen time ?

How to awaken your soul and change your attitude ? First, think of the stock market as a long term machine where each stock resembles a business and not just a piece of paper. Think big and learn compounding. Do you know any billionaire who is a trader ? Late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ), Vijay Kedia (VK) Radhakishan Damani (RD) ? They all started as a trader but today they are relevant and stayed rich because they migrated to value investing and became long term investors.

RD and RJ became full time businessmen and demonstrated how businesses and equities are intertwined and not two separate fields of making money. VK went on YouTube to record so many melodious songs to teach the whole world to be wary of frequent trading and free advice.

One of my investors got me his trading portfolio at $ 10,000 in the end of 2021 at a loss of 80% and he wanted me to sell the shares and reinvest in my strategy. However I wanted to show him that this is the time to buy and not to sell. I did not let him sell the shares and reinvested some money in 2 other stocks and one of his stocks also recovered and today he is back to less than 20% loss by remaining invested and not trading a single stock in 2024. This year his portfolio shot up more than 4 times from the bottom of Jan 2024.

Scenario 3: 15% or more is achieved with do nothing approach but asset allocation to equities are lesser than 50-60%.

You are welcome to comment on my article to help me educate the world. If you are achieving this consistently you should increase your stock allocation, you can do this by attending Berkshire Hathaway Omaha event on 3rd May ‘25 and learn from the legendary Warren Buffett himself. This event is attended by more than 27,000 people and it creates a vision in all of us by sublimating our fear of politics, regional wars, interest rates hike and taking our attention to underlying businesses behind these stocks.

Example: How many of us know that more than 30% of the world eyewear market is controlled by Luxorexotica. Zip chain of most of our jeans is manufactured by YKK, the world’s largest zipper producer, supplying nearly 50% of all zippers globally?”

Devil lies in the details. Start knowing your fund manager(s), fund(s) & individual holdings closely and get to know their business instead of watching their share price or looking at your wealth daily. I receive many calls during the day where investors express their fear over outsized returns on their portfolio and they would like to either know why I am not booking profits or what will happen next ? Why ain’t they spend some time knowing more about how their money is grown and how safe is equity investing if done properly ?

2024 prediction:

If you have come so far reading the article you deserve to know where I see 2024 ending. I deserve the right to go wrong. In my opinion we are in a soft landing scenario like 1994:96. The Fed increased interest rates in 1994 and kept on reducing it in 1995 and 1996. Not only have both years delivered bumper returns for the stock market, even 1997 was a great year too. See the table below.